Tsüklon 04.02 - 05.02

Kaarel · Post by **Kaarel** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 1:05 am

paistab et tuleb uus madalrõhkkond koos suurema hulga lumega. (paiguti)

ning estofex lubab jeeli jeeli saartele äikest.

Post by **Tarmo Tanilsoo** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 1:52 pm

ESTOFEX uuendas väljavaadet

...Norway, Sweden,Skagerrak,Baltic Sea and Gulf of Bothnia...

An early update became necessary to reflect some model discrepancies.
9Z IR images already show a region of enhanced convection forming just west of the coastal areas of W - Norway. A pool of extremely low mid-level temperatures is still forecast to shift rapidly towards the east although 6Z model output of GFS came up with a slightly different solution.
GFS tries to split the pool of cold air during the next few hours more significantly and is now more in a line with NMM.
One part will cross CNTRL Norway and Sweden and should support isolated thunderstorm development well inland especially when the mean wind shifts from westerly to more northwesterly directions ( regarding the damping effect of the Norway foehn ).

The main reason for this update was a significant southward extension of the thunderstorm line due to the other pool of cold mid-level air, which will support marginal instability release as far towards the south as the Baltic Sea. Main convective activity will be displaced from the best kinematic environment, so don't expect any significant severe weather threat, although wind gusts could locally reach severe wind criteria.

The area over SW Europe was also canceled. Thermodynamic profilers will only become worse and 00Z sounding reports already indicate a capped environment well inland.

Kella 11-sed IR-satelliidipildid olevat näidanud juba tekkimas olevat arenenud konvektsiooniga piirkonda Lääne-Norra rannikust läänes

Kaarel · Post by **Kaarel** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 2:44 pm

estofexi andmetel on isegi venemaal juba äikest olnud.

Tanel · Post by **Tanel** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 4:08 pm

Siin hakkas mõne aja eest lörtsi sadama, sooja 1,3 kraadi

Marek · Post by **Marek** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 4:45 pm

Tallinnas sadas ka peale 4-a lörtsi, õhutemperatuur on langenud +3,8-lt +2,3-ni.

Tanel · Post by **Tanel** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 4:55 pm

Nüüdseks on sadu muutunud lumeks, sooja 0,5 kraadi.

Post by **Tarmo Tanilsoo** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 6:49 pm

Ahh... Hirmus kahju, et Läti meteoradari pilt pole eilsest saadik uuenenud. Hetkel Lagujas temperatuur -0,1 kraadi.

Tanel · Post by **Tanel** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 7:38 pm

Siin ka -0,1 kraadi, sajab natuke lund

Kaarel · Post by **Kaarel** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 7:40 pm

siin hakkas kell 15 paiku mõõdukat suhtliselt kuiva lörtsi sadama. mõnedel hetkedel olid lumehelbed u 1,5 cm suurused. hetkeks on see sadu juba lõppenud.

Raul. K · Post by **Raul. K** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 9:32 pm

Tartus sajab tugevalt lund. Tuul on nõrk. Õhutemperatuur on +1,0 kraadi.[/code]

Marek · Post by **Marek** » Tue Feb 06, 2007 9:09 pm

Peale tsükloni ega ehk täna on Tallinnas pea terve päev sadanud peamiselt nõrka või mõõduka tugevusega lund, mille põhjustab rannikuefekt, sest radaritelt on näha, et sajab ainult põhjarannikul lund. Kokku on uut lund tulnud maha ~4...5cm.

Kaarel · Post by **Kaarel** » Tue Feb 06, 2007 9:59 pm

see põhjaranniku sadu kahjuks niipea ei lõppe.