Äikesetormide laine 7. juunil USA's

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Tarmo Tanilsoo
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Äikesetormide laine 7. juunil USA's

Post by Tarmo Tanilsoo »

USA kirdeosa võib päris karmilt saada.,
SPC AC 071235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF WI INTO ERN
MN...NERN IA...NWRN IL...WRN UP OF MI...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SRN PLAINS...

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO OUTBREAK STILL APPEARS LIKELY SPREADING
ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD AND
DEVELOPING SSWWD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS
PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND RAPIDLY
MOVING BOW ECHOES ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA YET TO TAP INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE RETURN NOW EXTENDING OUT
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN KS/NWRN MO. HOWEVER...EXTREME SSWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND DOWNWARD MIXING UNDER STRONG CAP SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST 5F SURFACE DEW POINT JUMP BY THE LATE MORNING INTO ERN MN/WRN
WI /12Z MPX SOUNDINGS INDICATED H85 DEW POINT NEAR 15C/.
THUS...EXPECT AXIS OF LOWER TO MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DRY
LINE/SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO SURGE EWD ACROSS MN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE MLCAPE /1000-2000 J PER KG/ THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGHLY ELEVATED CLUSTERS HAVE PERSISTED ALONG NOSE OF 90 KT LLJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL FROM THIS
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITHIN VERY LITTLE MUCAPE. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
BOTH STRENGTH OF ASCENT AND STEEPNESS OF LAPSE RATES ALREADY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE WILL
MOST LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN STRONG ASCENT AND WEAKENING CAP OVER
CENTRAL/NRN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BY 18Z. ACTIVITY
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRY
LINE/SURFACE FRONT SURGES EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY...AND
BUILDS SWWD INTO ERN/CENTRAL IA AND FAR NERN MO AS CAP BREAKS ALONG
THIS PORTION OF FRONT BY 21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EXTREME LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 70 KT AND SFC-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN 100 M2/S2 IN MOST
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS OF 50-60 KT WILL BE COMMON.
THEREFORE...TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FAST
MOVING LINES/SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CORES. THREATS OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE... WARRANT THE HIGH RISK. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS INTENSE LLJ AND UPPER SYSTEM
SHIFT EWD. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AFTER DARK.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY SSWWD INTO SRN PLAINS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS PORTION OF FRONT/DRY LINE INTO WRN MO/FAR ERN KS AND NERN OK
...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 00Z. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER DARK ACROSS THIS REGION. LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NNEWD OUT OF SRN OK THROUGH THE DAY.
HEATING WILL BE RETARDED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BY EXISTING CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP LATER TODAY AND ALLOW A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP DESPITE THE MODEST LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE. THOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED/
CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS REGION BEFORE DARK...BROAD AREA OF STRONG
MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND SWLY H85 FLOW IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPHS. THUS...SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LARGE HAIL.
SHOULD STORMS FULLY BREAK CAP INTO THE EARLY EVENING...TORNADOES AND
WIND DAMAGE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD
RACE ENEWD AT AROUND 40 KT.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/07/2007

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